Introducing AV Analysis, a regular update where our in house team of aviation experts and ISTAT certified appraisers use our data to analyse values, market movements, and notable aviation news.
This week, our Head Appraiser, Kane Ray gives an overview of 777-300ER values, operators, status, and activity.
For a 10 year old fixed age vintage 777-300ER, within the last year (YTD), the bottom of the market was USD 31.38m on 19th May 2022. The market high was on 24th April 2023 at USD 38.04m. This represents an increase of around 21.1%. Since the April highs, today, market values have decreased 0.2% to USD 37.96m.
Market values are supported by the following recent transactions
Sale of three 2006 vintage 777-300ERs by Cargojet Airways to an undisclosed buyer at USD 80.5m en bloc sale. Based on our research, we understand the maintenance condition of these aircraft on average corresponds to a half life trading price of USD 27m per aircraft.
Closing transaction of two mid life 777-300ERs formerly operating with a major airline. Our intelligence on the actual trading price and the maintenance condition of the aircraft (better than half life) leads us an equivalent half life trading price of USD 36m per aircraft.
777-300ER Operators & Fleet Values
Below summarises the Top 10 Operators of 777-300ER fleets by Half Life Current Market Value (CMV). Operator total values are representative of the sum of single unit aircraft CMVs.
As expected, Emirates as the dominant 777-300ER operator has the highest fleet value. United Airlines is included in this list due to the relative average age of its 777-300ER fleet, which were delivered between 2016 and 2020.
The oldest United Airlines aircraft, MSN 62642, delivered on 21st December 2016, has a CMV as of 31st May 2023 of USD 52.04m. Comparatively, its youngest aircraft, MSN 66592, delivered on 21st March 2020, has a CMV as of 31st May 2023 of USD 69.54m.
Some notable 2023 secondary market operator deliveries that are not shown on the chart include:
· MSN 35783 leased from Turkish Airlines to IndiGo in May
· MSN 33501, leased from Air Lease Corporation to Southwind on 10th March 2023
· MSN 35302, leased from Aviator Capital to Mavi Gok on 5th January 2023
Qatar Airways 777-300ER Activity (2022 vs 2023)
Focussing on perhaps the most active operator in the secondary market in the last 18 months, having taken numerous ex Virgin Australia (three) and ex Cathay Pacific 777-300ERs (four), our Aviation Values Activity data below compares the year to date, 777-300ER activity for Qatar Airways.
AviationValues Activity data captured so far in 2023 shows that Qatar Airways’ 777-300ERs are operating 25% less international routes than in 2022. Despite this reduction, there has been a 7% flight hour increase in 2023, a 10% increase in distance travelled, and 2% increase in the number of flights with the aircraft type.
Qatar Airways has recently publicised a desire to expand destinations, but this likely depends on the readiness of new Widebody aircraft deliveries into its fleet. Similarly, the delivery commencement of the Boeing 777-9 is likely to influence its strategy on 777-300ER fleet exits.