A regular update where our in house team of aviation experts and ISTAT certified appraisers use our data to analyse values, market movements and notable aviation news.
This week, our Head of Commercial Analysts, Gary Crichlow, gives an overview of Airbus A380 values, operators, status and activity.
Introduction
The Airbus A380 occupies a unique market position as the largest commercial passenger airliner in service. Its size makes it suitable for high demand trunk routes, but also limits its operator base and has rendered it particularly vulnerable to the downturn in demand related to Covid-19. With the relaxation of international travel restrictions beginning in 2022, passenger traffic has rebounded sharply, and this has created positive pressure on values. It remains to be seen how long this trend will continue, and ultimately, the A380’s market will be driven by its dominant operator Emirates.
A380 Recent Value Movements and Transactions
When looking at the last 12 months (YTD), Market Values for 12 year old A380s have had a 14.3% rise year on year. As of 11 June 2023 they sit at USD 37.15 mil. Recent transactions are few and far between, but include:
Purchase of 15 year old MSN 006, announced in May 2023, by UK based startup carrier Global Airlines from Doric Asset Finance. The price is undisclosed, but news reports indicate comment that it was “in the eight figure range.” AV’s Market Value, assuming half life condition, is currently USD 28.54 mil
Purchase of 13.5 year old MSN 016 by Emirates upon lease expiry in December 2022. The seller, Guernsey registered Doric Nimrod Air One Limited, announced the GBP 25.3 mil (USD 29.99 mil) deal upon lease expiry on 15 July 2022. On the date of the announcement, the Market Value calculated by AV’s algorithm was USD 26.45 mil; on the date of the lease expiry, the Market Value was USD 27.48 mil
A380 Status, Operators & Activity (2020-2023)
In 2020, AviationValues recorded net 214 status changes from active service to inactive (temporarily stored or parked long term). 177 of these decisions were enacted in the first quarter of 2020 alone, underscoring the A380’s particular vulnerability to the drop in passenger traffic flows as a result of Covid-19.
Since 2020, there has been a net status change from inactive to active service in 2021 and 2022; thus far for 2023 (YTD) this trend appears to be ameliorating.
As a result, 45% of the A380 fleet currently remains temporarily parked or in long term storage as highlighted by the below chart.
Below summarises the Top 10 Operators of A380 fleets by Half Life Current Market Value (CMV). Operator total values are representative of the sum of single unit aircraft CMVs.
As the A380’s dominant operator by a significant margin, Emirates’ deployment of the type will ultimately drive its long term market prospects. Emirates has reportedly indicated that it intends to operate its A380 into the 2030s.
Analysis of AviationValues Aircraft Activity data by month shows the number of A380 routes served thus far in 2023 has increased significantly relative to their respective month in 2022. The net growth of Emirates’ A380 network, particularly the pivot towards the Asia-Pacific region, is highlighted by the routes charts below.
A380 Routes
2022 YTD
2023 YTD
Data as of June 2023
Disclaimer: The purpose of this blog is to provide general information and not to provide advice or guidance in relation to particular circumstances. Readers should not make decisions in reliance on any statement or opinion contained in this blog.
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